bassett

Blu-ray has '5 years left'

Chris Forrester, on 04-09-2008

As consumers we should know better than to rely or depend on a technology
lasting more than five minutes. Now it seems the Blu-ray disk technology,
long described as the "Holy Grail" of home entertainment, has only five
years of life left in it, according to someone very close to the product.

"I think (Blu-ray) has five years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10,"
according to Andy Griffiths, Samsung's UK director of consumer electronics,
talking to website, Pocket-lint. His comment was immediately picked up by
dozens of other sites devoted to the Consumer Electronic industry.

But at the same time Panasonic launched two new Blu-ray players, which are
described as fourth generation products and adding Blu-ray "live" to the
specification. Blu-ray "live" compatibility enables users to connect to the
internet to download images, subtitles and other data, and take part in
interactive activities and multi-player games linked to bonus cinema content
found on Blu-ray Discs.

Mr Griffiths didn't suggest any replacement device, and we'll be sure to ask
the relevant engineers at the giant IBC broadcasting convention a week from
now what they might have up their sleeves. Certainly, NHK's technicians are
working on very thin high speed flexible optical discs capable to playing at
a staggering 250 Mb/s (to handle Ultra HDTV) but this product - still very
much in the Lab - is described as being more suited to boosting storage
capacity for archived material in a professional or broadcast environment.

Of course, it could always be said that we are living at the end of the
lifecycle for packaged media. Whether vinyl disc, cassette tape, Versatile
Discs (in any size or variety) might all end up going the way of (much
missed) eight-track tape, and just a curiosity in a museum. The alternate is
fibre to the kerb of your home and delivering all the data, entertainment
and visually-rich HDTV programming that anyone could want.

Satellite broadcasters in the US are already starting transmission at 1080p
(although not at the superior 50/60 frames per second rate) in order to show
their bandwidth capacity over IPTV suppliers and even cable operators. Maybe
this is another possible future, where 1080p - eventually at 50/60Hz - is
downloaded to a stacked array of TeraByte (or even PetaByte) home storage
devices and the need for Blu-ray evaporates. Watch this space.

Andy Wolfe

bassett wrote:
> Blu-ray has '5 years left'

yeah right, i must get a job as a speculator, no substance, no pressure,
no consequences if wrong. similar to banking/finance industry talking
about interest rates !

> As consumers we should know better than to rely or depend on a technology
> lasting more than five minutes.

only if something better comes along!

Now it seems the Blu-ray disk technology,
> long described as the "Holy Grail" of home entertainment,

yeah right. who cares if neighbours or big brother is in high-def !? i
will stick to std dvd til some films come along that warrant BR, let
alone the next gen. hollywood currently mostly makes shit like adam
sandler movies, do you need BR for those !?

> But at the same time Panasonic launched two new Blu-ray players, which are
> described as fourth generation products and adding Blu-ray "live" to the
> specification. Blu-ray "live" compatibility enables users to connect to the
> internet to download images, subtitles and other data, and take part in
> interactive activities and multi-player games linked to bonus cinema content
> found on Blu-ray Discs.

so panny will flog 'em til it dies, they don't care. the 'live' shit
will only work if bandwidth becomes a LOT cheaper.

>
> Mr Griffiths didn't suggest any replacement device,

see above about speculators, nice job if you can get it.

> Of course, it could always be said that we are living at the end of the
> lifecycle for packaged media. Whether vinyl disc, cassette tape, Versatile
> Discs (in any size or variety) might all end up going the way of (much
> missed) eight-track tape, and just a curiosity in a museum.

yeah in 50 years. 8-track missed out cos it couldn't be recorded, only
purchased off the ripoff music industry ! blank DVD's cost <50c, can't
beat that easily !

The alternate is
> fibre to the kerb of your home and delivering all the data, entertainment
> and visually-rich HDTV programming that anyone could want.

at $2/Mb, no way !!

>
> Satellite broadcasters in the US are already starting transmission at 1080p

NTSC crapola. and transmitting what ? jerry springer or oprah !?

> Maybe
> this is another possible future, where 1080p - eventually at 50/60Hz - is
> downloaded to a stacked array of TeraByte (or even PetaByte) home storage
> devices and the need for Blu-ray evaporates. Watch this space.

see above. bandwidth is a ripoff.


--
cheers, luddite and cheapskate, wolfie.

Alan Rutlidge

"Andy Wolfe" <agwolfe@pospam.optusnet.com.au> wrote in message
news:48c0ef74$0$31801$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.a u...
> bassett wrote:

<<< snipped in the interest of getting to the point >>>
>> Of course, it could always be said that we are living at the end of the
>> lifecycle for packaged media. Whether vinyl disc, cassette tape,
>> Versatile Discs (in any size or variety) might all end up going the way
>> of (much missed) eight-track tape, and just a curiosity in a museum.
>
> yeah in 50 years. 8-track missed out cos it couldn't be recorded, only
> purchased off the ripoff music industry ! blank DVD's cost <50c, can't
> beat that easily !
>
> --
> cheers, luddite and cheapskate, wolfie.

Couldn't record on 8 track tapes? Bollocks.
Perhaps you've been misinformed about the format?

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/AKAI-CR80-DSS...2em118Q2el1247

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/Vintage-Panas...dZp1638Q2em122

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/CRAIG-8-track...dZp1638Q2em122

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/MB177-Vintage...dZp1638Q2em122

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/Sony-TC-228-V...dZp1638Q2em122

http://cgi.ebay.com.au/SANYO-RD-8020...QQcmdZViewItem

Hmmm... all recording models. Still doesn't seem to be a shortage of them,
especially in the US. Getting blank tapes, well that's probably now an
issue (found several listings on eBay in the US), but so is DCC, DAT,
Elcassette and even good quality Compact Cassettes are now hard to come by
in Australia.

About the only thing you can't do with an 8 track is rewind it or reverse
cue it.

Cheers,
Alan

Andy Wolfe

Alan Rutlidge wrote:

> Couldn't record on 8 track tapes? Bollocks.
> Perhaps you've been misinformed about the format?

Hi
quite obviously. apple-polly-gollies !
consider me a little more informed now.

--
cheers, andy wolfe.

Chops

On Sep 5, 12:34*pm, "bassett" <bass...@bassettskennel.com.au> wrote:
> Blu-ray has '5 years left'
>
> Chris Forrester, on 04-09-2008
Snip>

Well, in my house I have noticed that we have pretty much gone to
networked Hard Disk Drives as the most used format .... it's not been
deliberate, just what has happened and I curiously noted the other day
how long it had been since I used a dvd.

Whilst we don't have blueray, my bet would be that online
distribution, with perhaps discs as a retail delivery method for B&M
stores will be what replaces blueray. And yes this will be sooner than
later.

Chops

Terry Wrist

Not sure what your point is. When DVD was released it wasn't even meant to
last 5 years as High Definition products were already being released.

There seems to be a lot of negativity towards the new HD disc formats, think
a lot of it comes from those who spent thousands on a DVD library after a
VHS library and are scared of buying all their titles again. Well it's
actually in most of our interests to see BluRay succeed. HD-DVD is dead;
BluRay has the advantage that a player will play DVD and Panasonics BluRay
burner will play and record DVDs as well as BluRays. Sure it is more
expensive new technology always is. Players have come down in price 60% and
blank media 80% in twelve months.

Hard Drives are cheap I can get a 1Tb USB HDD for under $200. It's a great
way to store a video library it's small and compact, instant access. The
problem is where do the films come from to get on the drive? I know many
people are downloading torrents. Most of these are crap quality and are
illegal. It is possible to pay for and legally download films, these are
great for some but not everyone has the bandwidth to do this. Internet in
Australia is not cheap enough and download rates are not fast enough to make
this an option all can use.
Some rent movies from a store and copy them to a hard drive to watch later.
Fine but they still have to be in a format like BluRay to bring home.

Solid state memory USB drives, SD cards etc. These are great and as seen
with Panasonics camcorder a viable option for reusable use. Problem is they
will never compete for price with a little plastic disc to manufacture a
64Mb SD card and a 50Gb BluRay disc may cost similar prices in stores today
but we can expect BluRay discs to drop the price of DVDs 20-30cents each but
a SD card will probably only drop to $10 at it's cheapest.

Yeah there are other options ready to go but as a format suitable for the
masses BluRay is the best option and all technology is fleating. In a short
period we have seen wax recordings, reel to reel tape, vinyl records,
compact cassette, VHS, CDs, DVDs with lesser formats in the middle nothing
lasts forever.

"bassett" <bassett@bassettskennel.com.au> wrote in message
news:48c09ab3$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
> Blu-ray has '5 years left'
>
> Chris Forrester, on 04-09-2008
>
> As consumers we should know better than to rely or depend on a technology
> lasting more than five minutes. Now it seems the Blu-ray disk technology,
> long described as the "Holy Grail" of home entertainment, has only five
> years of life left in it, according to someone very close to the product.
>
> "I think (Blu-ray) has five years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10,"
> according to Andy Griffiths, Samsung's UK director of consumer
> electronics, talking to website, Pocket-lint. His comment was immediately
> picked up by dozens of other sites devoted to the Consumer Electronic
> industry.
>
> But at the same time Panasonic launched two new Blu-ray players, which are
> described as fourth generation products and adding Blu-ray "live" to the
> specification. Blu-ray "live" compatibility enables users to connect to
> the internet to download images, subtitles and other data, and take part
> in interactive activities and multi-player games linked to bonus cinema
> content found on Blu-ray Discs.
>
> Mr Griffiths didn't suggest any replacement device, and we'll be sure to
> ask the relevant engineers at the giant IBC broadcasting convention a week
> from now what they might have up their sleeves. Certainly, NHK's
> technicians are working on very thin high speed flexible optical discs
> capable to playing at a staggering 250 Mb/s (to handle Ultra HDTV) but
> this product - still very much in the Lab - is described as being more
> suited to boosting storage capacity for archived material in a
> professional or broadcast environment.
>
> Of course, it could always be said that we are living at the end of the
> lifecycle for packaged media. Whether vinyl disc, cassette tape, Versatile
> Discs (in any size or variety) might all end up going the way of (much
> missed) eight-track tape, and just a curiosity in a museum. The alternate
> is fibre to the kerb of your home and delivering all the data,
> entertainment and visually-rich HDTV programming that anyone could want.
>
> Satellite broadcasters in the US are already starting transmission at
> 1080p (although not at the superior 50/60 frames per second rate) in order
> to show their bandwidth capacity over IPTV suppliers and even cable
> operators. Maybe this is another possible future, where 1080p - eventually
> at 50/60Hz - is downloaded to a stacked array of TeraByte (or even
> PetaByte) home storage devices and the need for Blu-ray evaporates. Watch
> this space.
>
>

bill

On Tue, 9 Sep 2008 1964 +1000, "Terry Wrist" <police@fed.gov.au>
wrote:

>Not sure what your point is. When DVD was released it wasn't even meant to
>last 5 years as High Definition products were already being released.

Err .. what ? Source please. That sounds like an urban myth.

>There seems to be a lot of negativity towards the new HD disc formats, think
>a lot of it comes from those who spent thousands on a DVD library after a
>VHS library and are scared of buying all their titles again.

Nope. A lot of the "negativity" stems from common sense and not
succumbing to greedy corporate interests.

> Well it's
>actually in most of our interests to see BluRay succeed. HD-DVD is dead;

What has HD DVD got to do with anything ?

>BluRay has the advantage that a player will play DVD and Panasonics BluRay
>burner will play and record DVDs as well as BluRays.

That is hardly an incentive to buy a Blu-ray player.

> Sure it is more
>expensive new technology always is. Players have come down in price 60% and
>blank media 80% in twelve months.

You're forgetting that most people don't really give a hoot about
picture quality - something which Blu-ray claims to improve
dramatically. It aint their - period. Joe sixpack and co want content
and couldn't care less if Salma Hayek's arse looks clearer in HD.

>Hard Drives are cheap I can get a 1Tb USB HDD for under $200. It's a great
>way to store a video library it's small and compact, instant access. The
>problem is where do the films come from to get on the drive? I know many
>people are downloading torrents. Most of these are crap quality and are
>illegal.

You obviously haven't looked very hard.

> It is possible to pay for and legally download films, these are
>great for some but not everyone has the bandwidth to do this. Internet in
>Australia is not cheap enough and download rates are not fast enough to make
>this an option all can use.

Australia is the arse end of the world for broadband - and it's likely
to stay that way for some time to come. You can forget about VoD and
IPoTV being deployed on a larger scale.

>Some rent movies from a store and copy them to a hard drive to watch later.
>Fine but they still have to be in a format like BluRay to bring home.

Bugger-all people that I've seen are renting Blu-ray titles. The
majority are grabbing regular DVDs to rent.

>Solid state memory USB drives, SD cards etc. These are great and as seen
>with Panasonics camcorder a viable option for reusable use. Problem is they
>will never compete for price with a little plastic disc to manufacture a
>64Mb SD card and a 50Gb BluRay disc may cost similar prices in stores today
>but we can expect BluRay discs to drop the price of DVDs 20-30cents each but
>a SD card will probably only drop to $10 at it's cheapest.

Flash memory technology is still not reliable enough for video usage.
The random access transfer rates are actually quite bad when one looks
at the latest 16GB modules.

>Yeah there are other options ready to go but as a format suitable for the
>masses BluRay is the best option and all technology is fleating. In a short
>period we have seen wax recordings, reel to reel tape, vinyl records,
>compact cassette, VHS, CDs, DVDs with lesser formats in the middle nothing
>lasts forever.

How is it "the best option" ?

1. The discs are more fragile than DVD
2. One needs a HDTV to view HD Blu-ray content
3. Blu-ray players are expensive and incomplete (missing profiles)
4. HDTVs are expensive and many mid-range ones cannot do 1080p
5. Blu-ray recordable media (BR-R, BD-RE) costs a bomb


Yeah, the "best option" all right - If you're a clueless moron with
more money than sense. Most people don't fall into that pidgeonhole.

Snapper

Andy Wolfe wrote...

> > Satellite broadcasters in the US are already starting transmission at 1080p
>
> NTSC crapola. and transmitting what ? jerry springer or oprah !?

Don't poo-poo it til you've seen it. HDTV in the US is very good. I saw it on a
television called a "DLP". I was suitably impressed.

Snapper

Andy Wolfe wrote...

> > Couldn't record on 8 track tapes? Bollocks.
> > Perhaps you've been misinformed about the format?
>
> Hi
> quite obviously. apple-polly-gollies !
> consider me a little more informed now.

Me too and I owned one. We were unable to find blank tapes or recording devices
back then. It's one of the reasons why the format died a quick death.

I remember when Holden released the Monaro LE. (Limited Edition, because Parts
Bin Special didn't sound as flash). It was a model run designed to get rid of
all the crap that it could no longer sell such as 8 track players and to
discontinue and to get rid of body bits and pieces for the Monaro range.

The other issue with 8 track carts was the size. A cart was probably twice as
thick as a cassette and maybe nearly double the length (or depth or width). So
you had little room to store them.

Getting back to modern formats, Blu-Ray has barely gotten off the ground.
Players are becoming more affordable and titles are being released. HD TVs are
also coming down in price. What remains to be seen, though is how many people
will continue to finance them via GE Money credit which is uber-expensive and
isn't getting any cheaper.

It's a matter of time before the credit crunch comes. And when it does whatever
makes Blu-ray popular now will be moot if no-one can afford to buy the gear.

Snapper

bill wrote...

> 3. Blu-ray players are expensive and incomplete (missing profiles)

What are these "missing profiles"?

> 4. HDTVs are expensive and many mid-range ones cannot do 1080p
> 5. Blu-ray recordable media (BR-R, BD-RE) costs a bomb

What are the figures relating to HD panel ownership? I mean 1080p not anything
less that supposedly qualifies as HiDef.

I'd like to go HiDef, but when I see the dearth of product on the HD television
channels, the cost of the Blu-ray players and again, a lack of titles in the
video stores I have to wonder if and when it'd be worth spending the dough.

I can't even watch the footy in HD as the local regionals don't televise it.
Certainly Ten Victoria doesn't. And watching SD broadcasts on a 1080 HD TV
doesn't look any better than my Panasonic SD plasma.

I s'pose if I won Lotto I'd lash out on all HD stuff, stereo systems etc. But
until then I'd guess that the prices of this stuff will drop.